All I Know Is That This Is Big

"For Sweden" (rallybeetle) 10/31/2014 at 15:23 • Filed to: safety, Space Ship two, virgin Galactic

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One of the phrases I use the most while working in Aviation Safety is, "We don't know what what don't know." Right now I know nothing about this particular incident, but I can offer a very limited insight on Virgin Galactic and commercial spaceflight safety.

SpaceShipTwo is registered as an aircraft with a N-number, but it's not really an aircraft, at least according to the FAA and ICAO. Nor is it a spacecraft like SpaceX's Dragon capsule will be. It falls largely outside the current regulations, though appropriate regulations were and will continue to be written.

I've also had the pleasure to meet some of Virgin Galactic's safety team, and they are brilliant professionals with perhaps the hardest job in the field. Anything comparable would exist in military or government-sponsored research aviation, with a much lower safety standard than commercial passenger flight.

I'm sure I'll have more to share as I hear more and the investigation begins, but right now I will reiterate: this is huge. The NTSB go-team currently driving to the airport has never investigated something like this, and this will likely be the most scrutinized investigation of the decade. This investigation will define the future of commercial space flight, but I trust they will get it right, even if it means delaying passenger service for several years.

EDIT: I just read that one pilot survived. That speaks volumes of praise for The Spaceship Company's engineers.

Dusty Ventures > For Sweden 10/31/2014 at 15:29

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I'm glad we have you as a part of Oppo for this. I'm definitely going to be interested in your insight in this. I've been a Virgin Galactic fanboy since the early days of SpaceShipOne, so this is a punch in the gut for me.

Eli's Got 2 > Dusty Ventures 10/31/2014 at 15:31

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Ditto.

Steve in Manhattan > For Sweden 10/31/2014 at 15:32

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My question - what sort of space suit were they wearing. Commenters on TV saying that jump is not survivable absent the right sort of gear, like Baumgarter's (as someone else pointed out in another post).

For Sweden > Dusty Ventures 10/31/2014 at 15:33

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I will give as much as I can, but really the last time a crash of an aircraft like this occurred was the X-15 crash I mentioned. There have been unmanned air-launched rocket planes that crashed, but unmanned test beds are almost considered expendable.

I feared/knew this would happen, and I'm glad it didn't happen with a full load of passengers, but I didn't think it would happen so soon.

For Sweden > Steve in Manhattan 10/31/2014 at 15:37

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I don't know about SpaceShipTwo, but images of SpaceShipOne show the pilot in a basic flight suit and helmet.

Any kind of bailout from that altitude would require a full pressure suit, like U2 pilots wear.

Dukie - Jalopnik Emergency Management Asshole > For Sweden 10/31/2014 at 15:43

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What about the investigation of Columbia? I can't remember if the NTSB performed one or if it would even come close to being similar to this.

For Sweden > Dukie - Jalopnik Emergency Management Asshole 10/31/2014 at 15:45

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That was a unique panel created specifically for the accident, similar to Challenger . I doubt that will be the case with this crash.

I would say the two cases are not similar, as Columbia suffered damage from a ground launch and had to deal with a much harsher re-entry.

Jcarr > For Sweden 10/31/2014 at 16:02

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Is Mike Melville still a test pilot for them? I had the pleasure of meeting him when Spaceship One came to Oshkosh a number of years ago.

For Sweden > Jcarr 10/31/2014 at 16:04

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I do not know if he still works for Virgin.